EV calculator
Strip the vig from a two-way market, then see what win rate each pick'em entry needs and what your edge is worth.
1. De-vig a market
Fair chance, Over / Yes51.08% (-104)Fair chance, Under / No48.92% (+104)Vig in the market4.71%Quoted implied (Over / Under)53.49% / 51.22%
Scales both sides by the total. The usual default.
2. What is a win rate worth?
+17.6%
expected value per $1, assuming every pick wins 56.0%
Break-even per pick54.21%Your edge per pick+1.79%Average return on $10$11.76
PrizePicks published base payouts (cross-checked with PropLine /v1/dfs/payouts). Checked 2026-11-10.
Break-even table
The per-pick win rate where an entry breaks even, assuming independent picks at standard payouts.
| Platform | Entry | Payouts (correct → return) | Break-even / pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| PrizePicks | 2-pick Power Play | 2→3x | 57.74% |
| PrizePicks | 3-pick Power Play | 3→5x | 58.48% |
| PrizePicks | 4-pick Power Play | 4→10x | 56.23% |
| PrizePicks | 5-pick Power Play | 5→20x | 54.93% |
| PrizePicks | 6-pick Power Play | 6→37.5x | 54.66% |
| PrizePicks | 3-pick Flex Play | 3→2.25x, 2→1.25x | 59.09% |
| PrizePicks | 4-pick Flex Play | 4→5x, 3→1.5x | 56.89% |
| PrizePicks | 5-pick Flex Play | 5→10x, 4→2x, 3→0.4x | 54.25% |
| PrizePicks | 6-pick Flex Play | 6→25x, 5→2x, 4→0.4x | 54.21% |
| Underdog | 2-pick Standard | 2→3.5x | 53.45% |
| Underdog | 3-pick Standard | 3→6.5x | 53.58% |
| Underdog | 4-pick Standard | 4→12x | 53.73% |
| Underdog | 5-pick Standard | 5→20x | 54.93% |
| Underdog | 6-pick Standard | 6→35x | 55.29% |
| Underdog | 7-pick Standard | 7→65x | 55.08% |
| Underdog | 8-pick Standard | 8→120x | 54.97% |
| Underdog | 3-pick Flex | 3→3.25x, 2→1.09x | 55.39% |
| Underdog | 4-pick Flex | 4→6x, 3→1.4x | 55.59% |
| Underdog | 5-pick Flex | 5→10x, 4→2.5x | 54.75% |
| Underdog | 6-pick Flex | 6→25x, 5→2.6x, 4→0.25x | 53.82% |
| Underdog | 7-pick Flex | 7→40x, 6→2.75x, 5→0.5x | 55.42% |
| Underdog | 8-pick Flex | 8→80x, 7→3x, 6→1x | 55.07% |
Sources: PrizePicks published payouts (cross-checked with PropLine's payout endpoint); Underdog help center, Sept 25, 2026. Payouts change and vary by promotion and state. Goblin and demon picks, and Underdog multipliers, are not in these tables. DraftKings Pick6, Sleeper and Dabble schedules are not included yet.